1. Risk analysis: basic concepts. (Basic stats, fault rates, repair rates, Markov processes, types of uncertainty, types of distribution)
2. Risks to operation of power systems: sources of uncertainty, the nature of large disturbances (including examples)
3. Risks in planning of power systems: sources of uncertainty
4. Power system risk indices (LOLP, LOLE, EENS, CI, CML, …) and their relevance to generation and demand balance, transmission and distribution
5. Form and use of security or reliability standards
6. Assessment of risk in generation systems: enumeration approaches (capacity outage probability table, the approach used in ER P2/6, etc.)
7. Assessment of risk in composite power systems: introduction to Monte Carlo simulation (the basic idea, convergence criteria related to confidence intervals)
8. Assessment of risk in composite power systems: different Monte Carlo simulation approaches (state sampling, fault and duration sampling, sequential simulation)
9. Economic issues in management of risk in power systems (Capacity markets, interruption incentives, customer damage functions, value of los load)
10. New issues affecting power systems: variable, stochastic generation and 'capacity value', higher power transfers over longer distances, increased demand for power, ‘smart grids’ (more use of corrective actions, including on the demand side, increasing dependency on comms and software)
11. Future directions in management of power system risk
2. Risks to operation of power systems: sources of uncertainty, the nature of large disturbances (including examples)
3. Risks in planning of power systems: sources of uncertainty
4. Power system risk indices (LOLP, LOLE, EENS, CI, CML, …) and their relevance to generation and demand balance, transmission and distribution
5. Form and use of security or reliability standards
6. Assessment of risk in generation systems: enumeration approaches (capacity outage probability table, the approach used in ER P2/6, etc.)
7. Assessment of risk in composite power systems: introduction to Monte Carlo simulation (the basic idea, convergence criteria related to confidence intervals)
8. Assessment of risk in composite power systems: different Monte Carlo simulation approaches (state sampling, fault and duration sampling, sequential simulation)
9. Economic issues in management of risk in power systems (Capacity markets, interruption incentives, customer damage functions, value of los load)
10. New issues affecting power systems: variable, stochastic generation and 'capacity value', higher power transfers over longer distances, increased demand for power, ‘smart grids’ (more use of corrective actions, including on the demand side, increasing dependency on comms and software)
11. Future directions in management of power system risk